We have long known that hybrid warfare is not new, nor is the concept of grey-zone operations. These competitive interactions occur among state and non-state actors, falling between the traditional duality of war and peace. Historically, hybrid tactics, combining military, paramilitary and civilian measures, have been used in warfare from ancient times to the present day. The United Kingdom, the United States and France, for example, frequently used hybrid tactics in the 20th century, often referring to them as ‘covert’ or ‘special operations’.
However, recent developments, notably from the rise of ISIS to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, illustrate a more sophisticated and multifaceted version of hybrid warfare. Globalisation and technological advancement have made modern states "more open, porous and vulnerable", leading to new vulnerabilities and threats. Hybrid warfare has expanded beyond the physical and now resides firmly in the digital and financial spaces, making it harder to define the threshold of war.
Grey-Zone Operations and the Need for Fusion
In the context of grey-zone operations, where actions fall short of formal warfare yet are more aggressive than peacetime competition, the need for comprehensive intelligence is acute. Grey-zone operations thrive in ambiguity, relying on misinformation, cyber-attacks, financial subversion and other tactics that blur the lines between war and peace. In these scenarios, hybrid warfare becomes the battlefield of the future.
In the UK and many open democracies, vulnerability to grey-zone threats is heightened because of the open nature of civil society and the digital revolution. While there have been strong investments in cyber defence and counterterrorism, other domains, such as financial intelligence, have emerged as crucial in countering adversaries operating within this grey zone.
So, how do we counter hybrid threats? Technology alone cannot solve the complexities of grey-zone and hybrid warfare, but it plays a central role in addressing them. With hybrid warfare being vague and hard to define, technological solutions that can fuse different sources of intelligence are increasingly important. These ‘all-source fusion platforms’ are uniquely equipped to pull together disparate intelligence, from SIGINT (signals intelligence) and OSINT (open source intelligence) to FININT (financial intelligence), helping to create a more coherent operational picture.
Conventional vertical platforms are highly effective at analysing specific intelligence streams. For example, SIGINT platforms can track patterns in electronic communications, while OSINT tools monitor propaganda and disinformation on social media. However, in a hybrid conflict, such as the Ukraine war, isolated intelligence is insufficient to manage the fluid and interconnected nature of modern threats. Here is where all-source fusion software becomes essential.
These software solutions, such as i2 Group’s analysis solutions, including Analysis Studio, pull together all factors and assimilate the information to make sense of it. They operationalise the data, using visualisation technology to help you make sense of the threat and give options to help you address it.
Here are some of the key functions of all-source fusion platforms:
In essence, all-source fusion software serves as a central hub for intelligence gathering and analysis, providing critical information to decision-makers and helping to protect national security. It gives a holistic view of complex situations.
To give an example of its use, we can look at how it is being employed to manage the evolution of financial intelligence (FININT). Financial flows have become a critical source of information, not only in tracing adversary activities but also in disrupting their operations.
As adversaries are forced to circumvent established anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) protocols, many are moving away from fiat currencies, utilising blockchain technologies to raise, move and launder money. Blockchain has therefore become as significant an intelligence source as traditional ones, such as SIGINT and OSINT. In response, all-source fusion platforms have expanded their capabilities to monitor blockchain transactions alongside the more conventional intelligence sources. The integration of financial intelligence with existing verticals is reshaping how analysts understand and respond to hybrid threats, particularly those that operate outside of conventional systems.
Conventional, Unconventional, and Hybrid Warfare: A Shifting Focus
If conventional and unconventional warfare are displayed on a Venn diagram, hybrid warfare sits squarely in the middle. In recent years, the focus has shifted toward the intersection of conventional and hybrid warfare, a change from the previous focus on unconventional-hybrid conflicts that dominated military thinking for the past two decades. The Ukraine conflict, for example, demonstrates how adversaries now blend conventional military tactics with unconventional methods like cyber-attacks, financial manipulation and disinformation.
This shift necessitates greater agility in intelligence gathering and fusion. As hybrid warfare becomes increasingly complex, it is essential to integrate all forms of intelligence to stay ahead of emerging threats.
All-source fusion platforms, such as i2 Group’s analysis solutions, including Analysis Studio, are at the forefront of this integration. These platforms pull together information from diverse intelligence streams, processing and visualising it to make sense of complex situations. With the growing importance of blockchain and financial intelligence, fusion platforms are evolving to include capabilities that track digital currencies and related financial activities, making them indispensable in countering hybrid threats.
Looking Ahead: The Impact of All-Source Fusion in 2024
In 2022, after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published a paper, called The Future of Open Source Intelligence for UK National Security.
‘The complex picture of the present-day intelligence environment indicates the importance of all-source fusion, which produces a reinforcing relationship between classified sources and PAI,’ said the report. ‘It is no longer a matter of selecting one form of intelligence or the other – in isolation, they will not be enough to meet the increasing demands being placed on the UK national security community by the sheer scale of data.’
A more agile approach to intelligence gathering and analysis was required, that advanced the cause of integrated all-source analysis, said the report’s authors.
Before the conflict in Eastern Europe, the importance of all-source analysis was becoming clear. ‘How well and how rapidly the intelligence community integrates emerging technologies into all-source analysis will be vital to its ability to generate timely, relevant and accurate advantage over capable rivals,’ said Brian Katz, a fellow in the International Security Program and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and research director of the CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force.
As of mid-2024, two-and-a-half years into the Ukraine conflict, it is clear that all-source fusion platforms are making a significant difference. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, every NATO member state must be prepared for a sovereign disruption or invasion within the next 48 months. They must understand the hybrid threat, specifically how the threat vectors and actors are operating and evolving leading up to a potential kinetic action. Facilitated by inter-agency co-operation, all-source intelligence solutions have needed to adapt to “working with” data, through more functionally rich integrations that respect the need for compartmentalisation, whilst facilitating near real time interoperability between defence, border control and security.
By integrating intelligence from multiple domains, including the rapidly evolving world of financial intelligence, these platforms have enabled defence forces to better understand and respond to complex hybrid threats. As adversaries continue to operate in the grey zone, leveraging both conventional and unconventional tactics, the ability to fuse and analyse data across all domains will remain essential for national security.